Global methanol prices have risen continuously since mid-August, led by tighter supply in Asia, with European and US markets following and Atlantic Basin cargoes flowing to Asia.
Asian methanol spot prices had risen nearly $75/ton since mid-August, assessed at $392-398/ton on October 19. Buyers in formaldehyde and MTBE have been restocking, and inventories at major East Asian ports including Ningbo and Singapore have drawn down for four consecutive weeks.
Arbitrage has opened, pulling Atlantic Basin cargoes eastward. US Gulf methanol prices rose $62/ton over six weeks to $410-416/ton barges on October 19, with several regional plants extending maintenance and a 1.4 million t/y Texas Gulf Coast unit on unplanned outage.
Northwest European spot methanol rose to €368-374/ton in Rotterdam, with buyers facing both shrinking Atlantic availability and higher Middle East shipping insurance premiums.
The Middle East remains the key swing factor. Analysts said Asian prices could rise another $30-50/ton by year-end if Middle East exports decline modestly, while East Asian plant restarts in November and new Southeast Asian capacity due in Q1 2027 could ease tightness.
