Global methanol prices have risen steadily since mid-August, driven by tightening Asian supply, higher energy prices and plant outages in the Americas. Asian spot prices rose about $75/mt since mid-August to $392-398/mt on October 19.
Arbitrage has opened, pulling Atlantic Basin cargoes toward Asia. US Gulf methanol rose $62/mt in six weeks to $410-416/mt barges on October 19, while Northwest Europe traded at €368-374/mt in Rotterdam this week.
Inventories at major East Asian ports including Ningbo and Singapore have drawn down for four consecutive weeks, reversing the loose stock position seen from June to early July.
Analysts said Asian prices could rise a further $30-50/mt before year-end if Middle East exports dip slightly. However, several East Asian plants are due to restart in November and new Southeast Asian capacity is expected in Q1 2027.
Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping security remain a key uncertainty for the market.
