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BASF raises 2026 profit outlook as geopolitical supply disruption lifts prices

BASF lifted its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to €7.4–7.8 billion on stronger pricing, with third-quarter sales of €16.4 billion, as Middle East supply disruption triggered by the US-Iran conflict benefited European chemical producers.

BASF raises 2026 profit outlook as geopolitical supply disruption lifts prices

BASF raised its 2026 earnings outlook for the second time this year on October 28, 2026, forecasting adjusted core earnings of €7.4–7.8 billion, up from a July range of €6.9–7.7 billion. Third-quarter sales reached €16.4 billion, around 5% above market expectations.

The company said product price increases contributed 12% of third-quarter growth, with volumes up 2%, and that core earnings rose 15% year on year to €1.6 billion. BASF had raised prices on some products by up to 30% in March as energy and raw material costs climbed.

Disruption to Middle East supply, including closure of the Strait of Hormuz, created additional demand for European suppliers and eased pressure on the sector, though higher energy costs also raised production costs.

BASF's agricultural business was an exception, with sales down 20% year on year. The company is pressing ahead with plans to list the agricultural unit on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, targeting completion before mid-2027.

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