Chinese disperse dye market quotations have held at a high of 30 yuan per kilogram since September 2026, up more than 30% from the 23 yuan/kg starting point of the current increase on June 22. Reactive dye quotations reached 45 yuan/kg, a cumulative gain of about 55%.
The main driver has been upstream intermediates. The price of reductant, a core disperse dye intermediate, has risen from 25,000 yuan/mt at the start of the year to 180,000 yuan/mt, a gain of more than 600%. H-acid, the core reactive dye intermediate, has climbed to an average of 150,000 yuan/mt from about 40,000 yuan/mt, a rise of about 275%.
Reductant accounts for roughly 20%-30% of disperse dye production costs, while H-acid accounts for about 30%-50% of reactive dye production costs, making intermediate prices the dominant cost driver. Dyes represent a very small share of garment costs, so downstream textile and apparel producers have shown low sensitivity to dye price increases.
Compliant domestic reductant capacity is estimated at only 50,000-60,000 mt/y, concentrated among three producers. Effective H-acid capacity is below 60,000 mt/y, with a structural supply gap of more than 10%; maintenance shutdowns at two major H-acid producers could cut effective capacity by a further 25% or more, and new capacity environmental approvals take two to three years.
Industry inventories are at historic lows, with traders and downstream printing and dyeing enterprises typically holding less than 15 days of raw material stock, and some small and mid-sized dye producers' reductant inventories nearing depletion.
