Asian methanol spot prices rose about $75/t between mid-August and Oct. 19, when they were assessed at $392-398/t. Tight supply in Asia, higher energy prices and outages in the Americas have driven the increase.
Atlantic Basin cargoes are increasingly diverted to Asia, where arbitrage margins are wider. US Gulf methanol gained $62/t in six weeks, with barges at $410-416/t on Oct. 19. Northwest European spot was heard at EUR 368-374/t in Rotterdam.
Port inventories in Ningbo and Singapore have fallen for four consecutive weeks, reversing the loose stock position seen from June to early July. Downstream formaldehyde and MTBE buying has improved, and Asian producers are restocking ahead of fourth-quarter production.
A 1.4 million t/y methanol plant on the Texas coast suffered an unplanned outage and will take at least three weeks to restore. Several regional plants have extended planned maintenance.
Analysts said prices could rise another $30-50/t in Asia before year-end if Middle East exports fall slightly. Bearish factors include East Asian plant restarts planned for November and new Southeast Asian capacity due in the first quarter of 2027.
