Asian methanol spot prices have climbed by close to $75 per tonne since mid-August and were assessed at $392–398 per tonne on October 19, according to market assessments reported by China Chemical Industry News. Western markets followed the Asian rally, and cargoes from the Atlantic Basin have been redirected east to capture wider arbitrage.
The upswing has been driven by tighter Asian supply, higher energy costs and outages in the Americas. A 1.4 million tonne per year methanol plant on the US Gulf Coast suffered an unplanned shutdown and is expected to be offline for at least three weeks. US Gulf methanol barge prices rose by $62 per tonne over six weeks to $410–416 per tonne on October 19.
Inventories at major East Asian ports including Ningbo and Singapore have fallen for four consecutive weeks, reversing the loose stock position seen from June to early July. Downstream formaldehyde and MTBE buying has picked up as Asian producers build inventories ahead of fourth-quarter production.
Northwest European spot methanol was quoted at €368–374 per tonne in Rotterdam. European buyers face shrinking Atlantic Basin availability and higher shipping insurance premiums on Middle East routes.
Analysts expect Asian prices could rise another $30–50 per tonne before year-end if Middle East exports fall modestly. Bearish factors include East Asian plant restarts planned for November and new Southeast Asian capacity due in the first quarter of 2027.
