Methanol prices have risen globally since mid-August, led by tighter supply in Asia. Asian spot prices gained nearly $75 per ton over the period, assessed at $392–398 per ton on October 19, with European and US markets also rising.
The rally has been driven by tighter Asian supply, higher energy prices and US plant outages, with cargoes from the Atlantic Basin flowing to Asia to capture the arbitrage. Downstream formaldehyde and MTBE buying has recovered, and inventories at major East Asian ports including Ningbo and Singapore have fallen for four consecutive weeks.
US Gulf methanol prices rose $62 per ton in six weeks to $410–416 per ton on October 19 as regional plants extended maintenance and a 1.4 million t/yr Texas unit suffered an unplanned outage. Northwest European spot methanol was quoted at €368–374 per ton in Rotterdam.
The Middle East remains the key swing factor for global methanol balances. Analysts said Asian methanol prices could rise a further $30–50 per ton by year-end if Middle East exports decline modestly.
However, several East Asian methanol plants are scheduled to restart in November, and new Southeast Asian capacity is expected to start in the first quarter of 2027, which could ease the tightness.
